OVERCOMING PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENVIRONMENT BY USING FORESIGHT APPROACH

Abstract

Diversity and variability of organization’s environment have a certain level of uncertainty about the future states. Uncertainty which is the central theme of strategic management is a key factor for managing organizations, determining the company's competitive position in a long time. Uncertainty means that the ability of managers to predict future states, requires the use of new instruments and methods. Such instruments include foresight. The article presents how organizations can overcome problems with variability and unpredictability of the environment in which they operate by using foresight approach.

The basic features of foresight studies, which determine the usefulness in combating volatility and unpredictability of the environment include:

• use a variety of methods, ensuring diversity of sources of data, methods of obtaining them;
• socialization process of creating the future;
• continuity of the process of creating the future;
• taking account of the unprecedented events such as the wild card in the foresight study ensures that the organization is more aware of your surroundings and the strategic decision-making process is more resistant to future changes;
• the fact that the foresight research create a safe space. The results are placed in the distant future, which allows participants to be more open to co-operation, understanding their vision and the development of trust between the participants.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.em.18.2.4062