THEORETICAL MODEL FOR ELECTRICITY MARKET PRICE FORECASTING

Abstract

The developed electricity market price forecasting model is presented in this paper. The following structural parts of the model are segregated and shortly described – determination of the aim of market price forecasting, analysis of features of electricity market price, identification of factors forming electricity market price and influencing on its changes, segregation of the most significant factors, gathering of statistical information and its primary processing, selection of forecasting method, calculation of forecasts, assessment of accuracy of forecasts, presentation of recommendations. Indicators and methods, allowing disclosing electricity market price features (volatility, spikes, mean-reversion, and seasonality), are listed. Factors, forming electricity market price and making its changes, are segregated and grouped under their relation with electricity supply, demand and market structure criteria. Methods, allowing segregating the most significant electricity market price factors, are mentioned. Electricity market price forecasting methods are designated and criteria, how to choose the method are ascertained. Indicators for assessment of electricity price forecasts accuracy are aggregated.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.em.17.3.2119